Economic data released Friday showed a sharp divergence in growth in Eastern Europe -- with the Baltics and Slovakia bouncing back but Hungary and Bulgaria still lagging badly.
Hungary saw zero growth in the second quarter compared to the first, the new data showed. Despite a rise in exports, Hungary is burdened by austerity measures aimed at bringing down the deficit, and low domestic demand.
Bulgarian statistics showed the economy shrank 1.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, the lowest figure since the country slid into recession last year. Bulgaria's National Statistics Institute did not give the quarter to quarter number.
However, Romania's economy grew 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, while Estonia's grew 2 percent, Lithuania's 2.9 percent and Latvia's 0.1 percent.
The Czech Republic also posted growth of 0.8 percent and Slovakia had an even more impressive 1.2 percent, thanks to an increase in exports and a revving up of industrial production. Both countries have export-oriented economies closely linked to the improved growth in their Western European trading partners, primarily Germany.
The economy of Germany and the 15 other countries that use the euro grew by a better-than-expected 1 percent during the second quarter, mainly thanks to Germany expanding at its fastest pace since its reunification two decades ago.
David Oxley, an economist specializing in emerging markets at Capital Economics in London, said that the situation is looking up, but he believes the growth in central and eastern Europe is not likely to be sustainable.
He expects "the overall pace of recovery to be quite sluggish" for some time because consumer demand remains weak, unemployment high and governments are facing a fiscal squeeze.
Oxley also argued that the banking sectors in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria remain fragile, undermining growth.
"A lot of this recovery has been driven by industry and there hasn't been much sign of that spreading to the consumer sector, which is another reason to doubt the sustainability," he said. "A lot of these countries do not seem to be growing at a pace that is consistent with the creation of jobs. Most economies need to grow by about 2.5 to 3.5 percent to create jobs, so we don't see that happening for quite a while."
Romania's 0.3 percent growth was better than economists expected. But the International Monetary Fund predicted last week that the nation's economy will shrink by 1.9 percent this year before returning to growth in 2011.